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Feb. 24, 2026, marks four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As the war enters its fifth year, major questions remain about its trajectory, the prospects for diplomacy, the durability of Western support and the long-term geopolitical and economic consequences for Europe and the broader international community.

Syracuse University experts are available to provide analysis on where the conflict stands today, what may come next and how the war continues to reshape global security dynamics. Please see their backgrounds and commentary below. If you would like to arrange an interview, please contact Vanessa Marquette, media relations specialist, at vrmarque@syr.edu.

Vice Admiral Robert Murrett (Ret.)

, professor of practice at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and deputy director of the Institute for Security Policy and Law, can speak to military and defense strategy, international relations, and national security. He says:

“As we mark the fourth year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is important to note that Moscow has not changed their original goals from the war, which extend beyond Ukraine and impact western Europe and elsewhere.  Notwithstanding all the setbacks that have been sustained by Russia –on the battlefield, in their economy and with the exodus of so many of their talented young people – the insular Kremlin leadership shows no signs of wanting to negotiate a truce or overall negotiated settlement, and in fact that they want the war to continue.

“At the same time, Ukrainian insistence on effective security guarantees and being able to control their own destiny are goals that are unlikely to change.  The Ukrainian people want to be able to support a pro-western government of their choosing, a military that can defend their country and overall domestic security.  All of this suggests that the war will continue for some time into the future, unless significant cost-imposing steps can be mounted by the international community that will genuinely impact the maximalist aims and calculus inside the Kremlin.”

Daniel McDowell

, professor of political science in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, is an expert on international political economy, international finance, international monetary system and IMF. He says:

“While Western sanctions have slowed Russia’s economic growth and hampered its military, they have failed to change Vladimir Putin’s decision to continue prosecuting the war in Ukraine. Russia’s economy has, as a consequence of the sanctions, grown highly dependent on China as a trade and financial partner.

“Meanwhile, as U.S. economic and military support for Ukraine has waned, Europe is faced with a decisive test: whether it can compensate for America’s declining role in Ukraine’s defense in the short-term while also funding a long-term remilitarization strategy needed to deter further Russian aggression. The answer will dictate the future of the Russo-Ukraine war and, possibly, the future of Europe itself. ”

Lauren Woodard

, assistant professor of anthropology in the Maxwell School, has expertise in political anthropology, migration and borders, race and ethnicity and former Soviet Union, including Russia, Georgia and Kazakhstan. She says:

“Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, support for Ukrainian refugees is unfortunately waning. In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s escalation of war, American and European governments and citizens showed unprecedented support for those displaced from Ukraine.

“Millions of volunteers across Europe, but especially in Poland, Germany and Czechia, worked together to host Ukrainian refugees, offering their homes, collecting clothing and needed items, and pressuring their governments to offer widespread protection. In the U.S., people hung Ukrainian flags on their lawns, donated to Ukrainian aid organizations and sponsored families through the Uniting for Ukraine humanitarian parole program.

“Four years later, Polish President Karol Nawrocki has signed a bill ending special status for Ukrainians, and many Ukrainians face an uncertain future in the U.S., with the Trump administration pausing the Uniting for Ukraine initiative and all pending asylum applications.

“Sadly, the initial welcome of refugees and then their abandonment is similar to what I observed during my research in Russia after 2014. Because of its proximity and cultural and familial ties, most refugees from Ukraine have gone to Russia over the past 12 years.

“As in the U.S. and Europe, officials and citizens welcomed Ukrainian refugees from Donbas, offering grassroots support and notably access to Russian citizenship. Between 2014 and 2022, though, support for Ukrainians in Russia waned, and as I argue in my forthcoming book, ‘Ambiguous Inclusion: Migration and Race on the Russia-China Border’ (UTP, April 2026), this reveals how migration categories, whether one is deserving of support, are always fluctuating, subject to shifting geopolitical moods.

“At the same time, we can look to the early months after the war started and escalated for solutions—grassroots activism instead of camps and large-scale aid delivery that mobilized local communities to build relationships and support people, regional as opposed to national coordination, and attention to the power of narratives—how we talk about immigration and refugees matters.”

Brian Taylor

is a professor of political science in the Maxwell School, expert in Russian politics and author of the highly acclaimed book “The Code of Putinism.” He says:

“In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he was launching a ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine that would be over in a matter of days or weeks. Four years later, Russia now occupies only about 20% of Ukrainian territory, less than it held in the first months of the war, and has suffered the death of roughly 300,000 soldiers.

“Ukraine and Ukrainians have suffered greatly, no more so than this brutal winter of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.  Despite the carnage, the stalemate on the battlefield and months of U.S.-sponsored negotiations, there is little reason to think the war will be over soon.

“Putin still wants to control Ukraine and shows no inclination to stop, and Ukrainians remained committed to defending their freedom and independence.”

Hon. James E. Baker

is the director of the and a professor in the College of Law and the Maxwell School. He also serves as a judge on the Data Protection Review Court. He says:

“Virtually every day brings a new lesson from Russia’s war against Ukraine for policymakers, security professionals and lawyers to study about drone warfare, the use of AI to target and defend the electromagnetic spectrum, the defense industrial base, and the role and limits of international humanitarian law, to name a few.

“The first states and militaries to identify and adopt these lessons will have immediate and perhaps long-term advantage, maybe a decisive advantage. This is true in Ukraine itself, but also in the frontline states that border Russia, and in the great power contest between the United States and China.

“There are two lessons that should immediately resonate with national security lawyers, wherever they serve. First, freedom is not free, it is the product of constant effort, or in the vernacular of U.S. practice, it requires us to support and defend the Constitution on a daily basis; it always has. The people of Ukraine are an inspiration. Against the odds, and in cold and dark trenches and basements, they have shown the world what it means to fight for freedom on and off the battlefield. I think of Ukraine and I thank Ukrainians every day for their example.

“Second, security guarantees do not derive from pieces of paper, even treaties, and even treaties with Article Vs. Security comes from alliances based on shared values, military capacity and the political will to defend those shared values.”