What to Expect With US-Iran Peace Deal

Osamah Khalil, a Syracuse University professor and Middle East expert, explains the fragile memorandum of understanding and what's standing in the way of a final agreement.

Ellen Mbuqe June 22, 2026

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The tenuous peace deal between the United States and Iran has yet to be signed, but for reporters looking for an expert to help explain the deal, please see comments from Syracuse University professor .

Khalil is a professor of history in the and a frequent media commentator on Middle East issues and conflicts.

When it comes to the deal, Khalil says:

“The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran is a welcome but fragile end to the conflict that began in late February. The released terms of the MOU demonstrate that the conflict was not only unnecessary but has been detrimental to U.S. interests in the Middle East and more broadly. President Trump failed to achieve any of his announced goals after scrapping the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and the maximum pressure campaign that he adopted and resumed after returning to office. This included assassinations, heightened sanctions and attacking Iran twice in less than a year while conducting negotiations over its nuclear program. Instead of using military force to achieve Iranian concessions, it was President Trump that offered incentives to Tehran in order for the terms of the MOU to be finalized and announced on his birthday. That these same or better terms could have been realized through diplomacy—or even just by continuing the JCPOA—has demonstrated the futility of the conflict and eight years of regional and international tensions.”
“Should the MOU lead to a final agreement it could fundamentally transform not only Iran but the broader Persian Gulf region. The end of U.S. sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program coupled with the economic benefits of billions in unfrozen funds as well as service fees for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be a significant boon for Tehran. It will be able to conduct unhindered trade globally and invite investments into the country. Without the shadow of the nuclear program and U.S. regime change efforts, there should also be a significant reduction in regional tensions. Meanwhile, the Iranian government is stronger than it was six months or a year ago when the first U.S.-Israeli strikes were launched on Iran’s nuclear sites.”
“The major hindrance to a final agreement is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is facing an election and likely criminal charges for corruption if he loses. Netanyahu has objected to the MOU and has rejected its application to Lebanon. Iran has insisted that the MOU will not be signed until the United States can ensure that Israel will comply with its terms.”
“The end of the conflict will leave several questions open about the future of the U.S. military position in the Persian Gulf. Every U.S. base in the Arab Gulf States suffered major damage from Iranian missile and drone attacks. It will require a significant commitment of time and funds to rebuild those bases, especially the advanced radar and anti-missile defense systems. In addition, the conflict exposed the U.S.’s over reliance on air and naval power as well as smart bombs and its vulnerability to asymmetric warfare. It remains to be seen whether Washington has absorbed this lesson, but it has been on full display for the U.S.’s competitors and potential adversaries as well as its allies and partners.”