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Grocery prices have remained a persistent strain on household budgets, and according to a supply chain expert in the Martin J. Whitman School of Management, that pressure isn’t expected to ease before the end of the year.

Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice, says a combination of rising costs across the supply chain is driving food prices higher. A shrinking cattle supply is compounding the problem, pushing up the cost of beef and other proteins.

The data backs him up. Grocery (food-at-home) prices rose for the fifth time this year in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the projects food-at-home prices will climb 2.8% for all of 2026—faster than the 20-year historical average.

Beef is a standout: farm-level cattle prices were up nearly 17% in May compared to a year earlier, and wholesale beef prices were up nearly 16%, driven by a cyclical contraction in the U.S. cattle herd.

Food prices are expected to keep climbing through the rest of 2026,” Penfield says. “[Fuel, fertilizer, trucking and transportation, packaging materials and labor costs are] key pressures pushing prices higher across the supply chain… With farmers now heading into the start of harvest season, these elevated input costs are expected to work their way through the supply chain and translate into higher prices for consumers by the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026.”

Penfield notes that until these underlying cost pressures ease, shoppers shouldn’t expect meaningful relief at the grocery store in the near term.

About Penfield

, professor of supply chain practice and director of executive education, teaches and researches supply chain management, procurement and logistics.

Media Contact

Reporters interested in speaking with Professor Penfield about grocery prices, supply chain disruptions or related topics may contact:

Daryl Lovell
Syracuse University Media Relations
MÌý315.380.0206
dalovell@syr.eduÌý´¥